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Demografiske overganger



espen.sobye@ssb.no

Seniorrådgiver Statistisk sentralbyrå

  • Side: 259-270
  • Publisert på Idunn: 2012-09-06

Ved sykehjemmene pleies mange av personer som ikke er født i Norge. Uttrykker en slik umiddelbar iakttakelse en reell sammenheng mellom en aldrende befolkning og innvandring? Alle som vil fylle 80 år eller mer i Norge i 2092 er allerede født, men hvor mange av dem har kommet til verden utenfor landets grenser, og hvor mange av dem som er født i Norge vil ha utvandret?

Demographic transitions

Is there a connection between immigration and the fact that the Norwegian people get older? The question is tried to be answered by presenting the theory of the demographic transition. In the interwar period a common pattern of the declines in fertility and mortality from the eighteenth century that was fulfilled in the twentieth century, was discovered in several western countries. After the Second World War this observation was developed to a theory. It was assumed that the fall in mortality that always starts the transmission also starts a chain-reaction with social and economic consequences. The transmission from high and fluctuating to low and stable rates of births and deaths have been claimed to be one of the main achievements of mankind over the last 500 years. With few exceptions the demographic transmission has been adapted on the development of the Norwegian population development from 1735 to present, with the exclusion of the fall in mortality by the end of the Napoleon wars. A theory of a second demographic has been suggested, this is characterized by immigration and sub-replacement fertility.

Keywords: Demographic transitions, migration, vital statistics, economic development
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